Groupo Iberostar Pulls Out of Litibu
Litibu is a major development adjacent to the Four Seasons Resort in Punta de Mita.
Litibu was being developed as a stand alone resort with at least three hotels, two condo developments, townhouse condos and golf courses. The Litibu project was a joint venture involving Mexico's tourism and land development crown corporation, Fonatur, and one of the world's largest resort developers, Group Iberostar, among others.
As a result of poor sales and slow cash flow, Groupo Iberostar is walking away from the Litibu project. We do not have further details except to say the Iberostar was not able to find a buyer for their share in this partially completed project and is unwilling to commit any further money to the development.
There are condo projects on the site including La Tranquila. HSC Financial attempted a site visit at La Tranquila in March of 2008 to confirm construction progress and we were denied entry to the grounds without attending a sales presentation. At the time, we had very serious concerns about claims made regarding sales-to-date and construction progress.
We are unable to report on the status of sales contracts for Litibu sub-projects.
Any developments to any projects related to Litibu should have no further funds advanced. If any cash has been advanced, it is probably lost, however we recommend that you hire a local solicitor in an attempt to recover money or to at least document losses.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Friday, November 7, 2008
Gran Venetian - More Problems
There are three major condominium projects just north of the Hotel Zone - The Peninsula, Gran Venetian and ICON Vallarta.
Each of these problems is a proposed 3 tower complex.
Each is beset with problems. ICON is the most flexible in dealing with projects because nothing has really been built yet.
Gran Venetian has had to suspend construction of its third tower. You pick the reason - an injunction brought forcing the tower to be built as a hotel rather than condos, poor sales, no financing, a re-structuring of the entire project. It doesn't matter. This project will eventually go into work-out status. The problem is that the Mexican market has very little experience with this type of work out. Actually, we have never seen a work-out created as a result of a legal requirement to change an escritorio (a declaration) to allow the development of a hotel instead of condos, anywhere.
This is a unique project for us to review. Because, while we are recommending a sell status for existing owners, we are not sure it is possible to divest of an investment in this project due to the issues surrounding the escritorio. As a result, it may be better for an owner who is actually residing in the completed tower(s) to hold their investment.
Again, we stress that individual owners have unique financial profiles, and our comments are general in nature only. Specific investment advice should be sought before decisions are made.
Each of these problems is a proposed 3 tower complex.
Each is beset with problems. ICON is the most flexible in dealing with projects because nothing has really been built yet.
Gran Venetian has had to suspend construction of its third tower. You pick the reason - an injunction brought forcing the tower to be built as a hotel rather than condos, poor sales, no financing, a re-structuring of the entire project. It doesn't matter. This project will eventually go into work-out status. The problem is that the Mexican market has very little experience with this type of work out. Actually, we have never seen a work-out created as a result of a legal requirement to change an escritorio (a declaration) to allow the development of a hotel instead of condos, anywhere.
This is a unique project for us to review. Because, while we are recommending a sell status for existing owners, we are not sure it is possible to divest of an investment in this project due to the issues surrounding the escritorio. As a result, it may be better for an owner who is actually residing in the completed tower(s) to hold their investment.
Again, we stress that individual owners have unique financial profiles, and our comments are general in nature only. Specific investment advice should be sought before decisions are made.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Slow Start to New Season
The new real estate year in Puerto Vallarta has now started and it has started slowly.
A number of projects have either been cancelled outright or are proceeding at a much slower pace than originally anticipated.
American buyers have not returned to the market. And with prices down near 30% in traditional US vacation/investment destinations, Americans with money are getting much better value in their domestic market.
The 2007/2008 season was the year of the Canadians, as the Canadian dollar hit par and better with the US dollar. With the Canadian dollar having dropped to 85 cents US, the Canadian buyer has effectively disappeared.
Puerto Vallarta and Riviera Nayarit are definitely buyers markets presently.
Prices peaked in the Vallarta market area in February 2007 and proceeded to drop 5-20% over the next year. There has been a decline in price since then, but it has been moderate and mostly with re-sale condos in the $300M - $650M range. For instance Horizon 503 is listed at $499,500, the first Horizon product we have seen listed for below $500M. Typically, that product would sell for about 95% of list or about $475M. That product peaked in price at around $620 - $650M.
New developer-based product is difficult to price since developers are generally not reducing their advertised list prices and are, instead, applying deep discounts or sweetners to offers. For instance, one Riviera Nayarit development has not changed its advertised price, but is offering as much as a 23% discount against the published purchase price based on financing options selected.
Disclosure by developers continues to be a problem. ICON Vallarta, for instance, has not updated its published prices and inventory since August of 2007. ICON, you may recall, claimed it sold out Tower 1 in a just days back in the spring of 2007, and that the sell-out of Tower 2 was imminent. Well, here we are some 18 months later, and there is plenty of Tower 2 product available. Tower 3 is probably light-years away.
A number of projects have either been cancelled outright or are proceeding at a much slower pace than originally anticipated.
American buyers have not returned to the market. And with prices down near 30% in traditional US vacation/investment destinations, Americans with money are getting much better value in their domestic market.
The 2007/2008 season was the year of the Canadians, as the Canadian dollar hit par and better with the US dollar. With the Canadian dollar having dropped to 85 cents US, the Canadian buyer has effectively disappeared.
Puerto Vallarta and Riviera Nayarit are definitely buyers markets presently.
Prices peaked in the Vallarta market area in February 2007 and proceeded to drop 5-20% over the next year. There has been a decline in price since then, but it has been moderate and mostly with re-sale condos in the $300M - $650M range. For instance Horizon 503 is listed at $499,500, the first Horizon product we have seen listed for below $500M. Typically, that product would sell for about 95% of list or about $475M. That product peaked in price at around $620 - $650M.
New developer-based product is difficult to price since developers are generally not reducing their advertised list prices and are, instead, applying deep discounts or sweetners to offers. For instance, one Riviera Nayarit development has not changed its advertised price, but is offering as much as a 23% discount against the published purchase price based on financing options selected.
Disclosure by developers continues to be a problem. ICON Vallarta, for instance, has not updated its published prices and inventory since August of 2007. ICON, you may recall, claimed it sold out Tower 1 in a just days back in the spring of 2007, and that the sell-out of Tower 2 was imminent. Well, here we are some 18 months later, and there is plenty of Tower 2 product available. Tower 3 is probably light-years away.
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Gran Venetian
Since our initial review of the Gran Venetian project in early 2007, we have been recommending a "pass" on potential investments in the project.
Over the past 15 months, we have published updates to our initial review and advised that the risk to the project has increased since our initial review.
We have now been advised that the developer will have to financially restructure in order to complete the project. And that sub-contractors are not being paid.
We are downgrading our recommendation to "sell" for any existing purchasers. Our recommendation to potential purchasers remains to "pass". We continue to advise mortgage providers not to provide mortgages for investments in this project.
Since our initial review of the Gran Venetian project in early 2007, we have been recommending a "pass" on potential investments in the project.
Over the past 15 months, we have published updates to our initial review and advised that the risk to the project has increased since our initial review.
We have now been advised that the developer will have to financially restructure in order to complete the project. And that sub-contractors are not being paid.
We are downgrading our recommendation to "sell" for any existing purchasers. Our recommendation to potential purchasers remains to "pass". We continue to advise mortgage providers not to provide mortgages for investments in this project.
Monday, May 19, 2008
Canadian Government Urged to Review Risk
HSC Financial Inc. has requested that the Canadian government, through its Foreign Affairs department, review its existing published travel report for Canadians in Mexico. At present Foreign Affairs is advising that Canadians "exercise a high degree of caution" while in Mexico.
We have advised Foreign Affairs that prior to making substantial investments in a foreign country, Canadians have a right to determine the level of risk with their investments and their personal safety.
We have made the request to Foreign Affairs as a result of what may be an increased risk profile for Canadians and other foreigners in Mexico as evidenced by the following:
1. A highly visible series of recent deaths of Canadians in Mexico including, but not limited to, Bouabal Bounthavorn of British Columbia, Domenic & Nancy Ianiero of Ontario, Janette Lerch of Ontario, and Jeff Toews of Alberta. In addition to several Canadians dying, under mysterious circumstances in Mexico, other foreign nationals have recently been murdered in Mexico.
2. Canadian investors in time-share programs who have not had their contracts honored
3. Potential developer and builder malfeasance at major building sites including the Grand Venetian and Icon developments in Puerto Vallarta.
4. Increased reports of police corruption in specific resort communities, including Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
5. Increased reports of drug related violence in several Mexican communities including assassinations of several high ranking law enforcement officials.
HSC Financial Inc. provides detailed risk assessments to Canadian investors and to Canadian and American lenders financing investments in Mexico. We rely on country risk assessments provided by, among others, the Canadian government and rating agencies. These assessments need to be complete and up-to-date.
HSC Financial Inc. has requested that the Canadian government, through its Foreign Affairs department, review its existing published travel report for Canadians in Mexico. At present Foreign Affairs is advising that Canadians "exercise a high degree of caution" while in Mexico.
We have advised Foreign Affairs that prior to making substantial investments in a foreign country, Canadians have a right to determine the level of risk with their investments and their personal safety.
We have made the request to Foreign Affairs as a result of what may be an increased risk profile for Canadians and other foreigners in Mexico as evidenced by the following:
1. A highly visible series of recent deaths of Canadians in Mexico including, but not limited to, Bouabal Bounthavorn of British Columbia, Domenic & Nancy Ianiero of Ontario, Janette Lerch of Ontario, and Jeff Toews of Alberta. In addition to several Canadians dying, under mysterious circumstances in Mexico, other foreign nationals have recently been murdered in Mexico.
2. Canadian investors in time-share programs who have not had their contracts honored
3. Potential developer and builder malfeasance at major building sites including the Grand Venetian and Icon developments in Puerto Vallarta.
4. Increased reports of police corruption in specific resort communities, including Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
5. Increased reports of drug related violence in several Mexican communities including assassinations of several high ranking law enforcement officials.
HSC Financial Inc. provides detailed risk assessments to Canadian investors and to Canadian and American lenders financing investments in Mexico. We rely on country risk assessments provided by, among others, the Canadian government and rating agencies. These assessments need to be complete and up-to-date.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Buyers Market in the US Bodes Well For Second Home Purchasers
During the run up of real estate prices in the U.S. and Canada between 1996 and 2006, HSC Financial became bullish on making second home and other real estate investments along the west coast of Mexico. American and Canadian investors could access equity in their first homes or use available cash to make solid, good value investments in Mexico. Mexican prices did not escalate rapidly until the period 2004.
In the past 15 months there have been significant changes in the structure for real estate investments across Canada, the US and Mexico.
The most significant change is the decline in property prices in all traditional retirement and investment home markets in the US. since early 2007. Miami and Las Vegas, which experienced a burst of speculative building during the housing boom, led the way with annual declines of 22.8 and 21.7 per cent, respectively. Prices are also down sharply in California – Los Angeles (off 19.4 per cent), San Diego (19.2 per cent) and San Francisco (17.2 per cent). The result is that there are now some excellent investment opportunities available to American stateside. Those with access to money do not need to invest in Mexico to get good investment value.
The second change is the drop in all housing prices across the United States and the leveling off of housing prices in Canada. U.S prices are down nearly 15 per cent from their July, 2006, peak. Home equity loans have declined. Investors must now rely more on their own capital.
The third change is the strengthening of the Canadian dollar from 64 cents U.S. just a few years back to parity. There are few good real estate investment values available to Americans in Canada, compared to years past.
As a result of these changes, HSC Financial expects to make more recommendations for Americans (and Canadians) to make real estate purchasers in their domestic markets rather than in Mexico. We are of the opinion that Mexican investment real estate will have to drop by at least 25% in price to justify new investment. We also expect that Americans, who are heavily invested in Mexico, to re-balance their portfolios by taking advantage of lower cost investment properties in the United States. We are of the opinion that, over the longer term, U.S. real estate investments will outperform Mexican investments on a risk adjusted basis.
In the past 15 months there have been significant changes in the structure for real estate investments across Canada, the US and Mexico.
The most significant change is the decline in property prices in all traditional retirement and investment home markets in the US. since early 2007. Miami and Las Vegas, which experienced a burst of speculative building during the housing boom, led the way with annual declines of 22.8 and 21.7 per cent, respectively. Prices are also down sharply in California – Los Angeles (off 19.4 per cent), San Diego (19.2 per cent) and San Francisco (17.2 per cent). The result is that there are now some excellent investment opportunities available to American stateside. Those with access to money do not need to invest in Mexico to get good investment value.
The second change is the drop in all housing prices across the United States and the leveling off of housing prices in Canada. U.S prices are down nearly 15 per cent from their July, 2006, peak. Home equity loans have declined. Investors must now rely more on their own capital.
The third change is the strengthening of the Canadian dollar from 64 cents U.S. just a few years back to parity. There are few good real estate investment values available to Americans in Canada, compared to years past.
As a result of these changes, HSC Financial expects to make more recommendations for Americans (and Canadians) to make real estate purchasers in their domestic markets rather than in Mexico. We are of the opinion that Mexican investment real estate will have to drop by at least 25% in price to justify new investment. We also expect that Americans, who are heavily invested in Mexico, to re-balance their portfolios by taking advantage of lower cost investment properties in the United States. We are of the opinion that, over the longer term, U.S. real estate investments will outperform Mexican investments on a risk adjusted basis.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Recreational and Investment Real Estate Markets Tumble
"The basis for optimism is sheer terror." – Oscar Wilde
The bad news for the real estate market along the Pacific Coast of Mexico continues to get worse.
Real estate demand along the Mexican Pacific Coast is entirely dependent on three variables: American purchasers with (1) deep pockets; (2) easy access to cheap financing, and (3) limited real estate investment opportunities, at reasonable pricing, in the United States. All three of these variables are moving rapidly in the wrong direction for Mexican real estate sellers.
The decline in both the stock market and the US housing market has already reduced the average American's net worth by more than $75,000. This reduction in net worth is the deepest in history during an American recession, and it has come despite the lowest interest rates in a generation. The 1929 and the 1980-81 stock market crashes were much deeper than the recent decline in stock prices, but those crashes were limited to fairly small segments of the US economy. In 1929, less than 8% of Americans had exposure to the stock market. Today over 70% of Americans own stock, directly, indirectly through funds and also within their 401(k)s. The 2000 dot com bust was deep but it occurred in the midst of a rapid and steep run-up in housing prices and also impacted a limited number of investors. Most concerning is that reduction in net worth is not over.
The cheap financing of the past 10 years has dried up. Just two years ago, US lenders were making mortgages available at the Fed rate, or even lower than the Fed rate. Today, the spread between the cheapest mortgages and the Fed rate is 3-4%. Even worse is that lending covenants or conditions have been severely tightened such that the highest quality borrowers are not able to access funds even if they were willing to pay higher prices.
What might be the final nail in the coffin for the Mexican real estate market is the clear and evident collapse of prices for housing in the traditional sun belt and retirement markets of the United States. The Economist reports that the following US locations have experienced a 10 - 20% price decline in the past year: Orlando, Tampa and Miami in Florida; Phoenix, Arizona; Las Vegas, Nevada and Los Angeles and San Diego in California. And that decline is accelerating. There are now properties in Southern California being auctioned for 40% less than what purchasers paid for them 2 years ago. Americans who do have ready cash and want to invest in retirement and second properties no longer need to forgo that over-priced $400,000 condo in San Diego to purchase a $300,000 condo in Ensenada, Mexico, some 100km south of San Diego. The condo they want in their backyard in San Diego is now priced at $275,000, less than the competing property in Ensenada. There are now simply too many bargins in the United States for Americans with the available cash to ignore. Mexico prices will have to fall by 20% to be attractive again, and that drop does not include the price adjustment that we recommend due to the risk of investing in Mexico.
We closely track the Standard & Poors Case/Schiller Index of house prices across the US. This index is the best predictor we know for predicted discretionary spending on investment & rcreational properties, as well as tracking family wealth accumulation in the U.S. Today it was reported that the index dropped by 12% in the past year, the steepest yearly drop in the 20-year history of the index.
"The basis for optimism is sheer terror." – Oscar Wilde
The bad news for the real estate market along the Pacific Coast of Mexico continues to get worse.
Real estate demand along the Mexican Pacific Coast is entirely dependent on three variables: American purchasers with (1) deep pockets; (2) easy access to cheap financing, and (3) limited real estate investment opportunities, at reasonable pricing, in the United States. All three of these variables are moving rapidly in the wrong direction for Mexican real estate sellers.
The decline in both the stock market and the US housing market has already reduced the average American's net worth by more than $75,000. This reduction in net worth is the deepest in history during an American recession, and it has come despite the lowest interest rates in a generation. The 1929 and the 1980-81 stock market crashes were much deeper than the recent decline in stock prices, but those crashes were limited to fairly small segments of the US economy. In 1929, less than 8% of Americans had exposure to the stock market. Today over 70% of Americans own stock, directly, indirectly through funds and also within their 401(k)s. The 2000 dot com bust was deep but it occurred in the midst of a rapid and steep run-up in housing prices and also impacted a limited number of investors. Most concerning is that reduction in net worth is not over.
The cheap financing of the past 10 years has dried up. Just two years ago, US lenders were making mortgages available at the Fed rate, or even lower than the Fed rate. Today, the spread between the cheapest mortgages and the Fed rate is 3-4%. Even worse is that lending covenants or conditions have been severely tightened such that the highest quality borrowers are not able to access funds even if they were willing to pay higher prices.
What might be the final nail in the coffin for the Mexican real estate market is the clear and evident collapse of prices for housing in the traditional sun belt and retirement markets of the United States. The Economist reports that the following US locations have experienced a 10 - 20% price decline in the past year: Orlando, Tampa and Miami in Florida; Phoenix, Arizona; Las Vegas, Nevada and Los Angeles and San Diego in California. And that decline is accelerating. There are now properties in Southern California being auctioned for 40% less than what purchasers paid for them 2 years ago. Americans who do have ready cash and want to invest in retirement and second properties no longer need to forgo that over-priced $400,000 condo in San Diego to purchase a $300,000 condo in Ensenada, Mexico, some 100km south of San Diego. The condo they want in their backyard in San Diego is now priced at $275,000, less than the competing property in Ensenada. There are now simply too many bargins in the United States for Americans with the available cash to ignore. Mexico prices will have to fall by 20% to be attractive again, and that drop does not include the price adjustment that we recommend due to the risk of investing in Mexico.
We closely track the Standard & Poors Case/Schiller Index of house prices across the US. This index is the best predictor we know for predicted discretionary spending on investment & rcreational properties, as well as tracking family wealth accumulation in the U.S. Today it was reported that the index dropped by 12% in the past year, the steepest yearly drop in the 20-year history of the index.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Fallout and Restructuring
Venegas World Star Realty
Venegas World Star Realty was one of the largest real estate brokerages in Puerto Vallarta. Today the Venegas name is gone from the marquee, the satellite offices have been closed and the future of the brokergage is not known. It appears that World Star Realty will continue to operate out of the main office on Olas Altas in Zona Romantica, but with a much reduced footprint.
Bayview Grand - Grand Venetian
We last fully reviewed the Grand Venetian on February 10, 2007 . It was supposed to be three towers, each tower with 140 condos, and and additional 68 townhouses spread across a 40 acre site . At least until last month. Despite the fact that the third and final tower is under construction and the site layout was complete, the townhouses have been cancelled, the height of the third tower increased while under construction, and the number of units in tower three increased from 140 to 234.
We have seen projects restructured prior to construction and we have also seen slight modifications to building plans such as building 10 rooftop penthouses instead of 8. But we have never seen an as-planned building, under construction, expanded by over 80% in unit capacity.
We are not technical building experts, but we do know some things about expanding, after the footings have been laid and the first few floors have been built. First, there is no additional parking capacity. Parking has already been built. So apparently there will be two classes of buyers, one class gets inside covered parking, the second class gets outside parking. Second, the common elements for all three buildings are finished and were developed with the capacity to serve 140 condos in tower 3, but now tower 3 will have 234 units. How do the common elements get expanded? Who pays for the expansion?
However, the real confusion surrounds what we in Canada call the Declaration and what in Mexico should be called the Escritorio. It is the legal document which specfically describes what is owned, what is considered an exclusive-use common element and what is considered a common element. The townhouse site, which still exists, but will not have townhouses, now has to be "written in" as common elements to the Declarations of those properties in Tower 2 that have been finished and delivered. (This project has 3 towers which were sold in the following order: Tower 1, Tower 2, Tower 3, but they are being completed in the following order - Tower 2, Tower 1, Tower 3). We do not believe it is possible to alter a Declaration without a 100% vote in favour and we don't see it happening.
Has a condo purchase at this site been a good investment? Two years ago, I bedroom units in tower one sold for $229M. Today, one bedroom units in tower 3 sell from $190 - $220M.
Venegas World Star Realty was one of the largest real estate brokerages in Puerto Vallarta. Today the Venegas name is gone from the marquee, the satellite offices have been closed and the future of the brokergage is not known. It appears that World Star Realty will continue to operate out of the main office on Olas Altas in Zona Romantica, but with a much reduced footprint.
Bayview Grand - Grand Venetian
We last fully reviewed the Grand Venetian on February 10, 2007 . It was supposed to be three towers, each tower with 140 condos, and and additional 68 townhouses spread across a 40 acre site . At least until last month. Despite the fact that the third and final tower is under construction and the site layout was complete, the townhouses have been cancelled, the height of the third tower increased while under construction, and the number of units in tower three increased from 140 to 234.
We have seen projects restructured prior to construction and we have also seen slight modifications to building plans such as building 10 rooftop penthouses instead of 8. But we have never seen an as-planned building, under construction, expanded by over 80% in unit capacity.
We are not technical building experts, but we do know some things about expanding, after the footings have been laid and the first few floors have been built. First, there is no additional parking capacity. Parking has already been built. So apparently there will be two classes of buyers, one class gets inside covered parking, the second class gets outside parking. Second, the common elements for all three buildings are finished and were developed with the capacity to serve 140 condos in tower 3, but now tower 3 will have 234 units. How do the common elements get expanded? Who pays for the expansion?
However, the real confusion surrounds what we in Canada call the Declaration and what in Mexico should be called the Escritorio. It is the legal document which specfically describes what is owned, what is considered an exclusive-use common element and what is considered a common element. The townhouse site, which still exists, but will not have townhouses, now has to be "written in" as common elements to the Declarations of those properties in Tower 2 that have been finished and delivered. (This project has 3 towers which were sold in the following order: Tower 1, Tower 2, Tower 3, but they are being completed in the following order - Tower 2, Tower 1, Tower 3). We do not believe it is possible to alter a Declaration without a 100% vote in favour and we don't see it happening.
Has a condo purchase at this site been a good investment? Two years ago, I bedroom units in tower one sold for $229M. Today, one bedroom units in tower 3 sell from $190 - $220M.
Monday, February 18, 2008
Sales Softness Continues
Real estate sales continue to trend down, and the end does not appear in site. Recently released sales figures show that market volume declined by about 10 % in 2007 over 2006, and the trend accelerated in the 4th quarter with an almost 15% decline. The number of listings on the MLS rose by 10%, the first statistically significant rise in Puerto Vallarta MLS listings since they have been kept.
The north shore of Bandaras Bay, in the state of Nayarit, has been renamed Riveria Nayarit. The re-naming was done by the Mexican government's crown corporation for tourism called Fonatur. Fonatur is co-ordinating development in the area. Riveria Nayarit is adding new product to the Puerto Vallarta market far faster than it can be absorbed.
There are now 7,000 recreational & investment properties available in the Puerto Vallarta market, up from 5,500 last year. The inventory represents about 4 years supply of sales. Another 14,000 properties are planned in the next 7 years.
2007 also saw a decline in Puerto Vallarta real estate prices, although that decline shows considerable variation from location to location. The best locations in such areas as Zona Romantica or the Hotel Zone are showing 5% price declines for new product, and steeper declines of up to 10% for re-sale. Amapas which is considered a prime location is now showing declines in price, especially for re-sales, if a sale is even possible due to the infrastructure problems in the area. These declines are even occuring at signature projects such as Horizon. Nuevo Vallarta prices are down 15-20%, mostly as a result of discounts from list prices being offered at new developments. For example Grupo Real del Mar is offering discounts of up to 25% for its projects in Nuevo Vallarta.
We have studied many specific boom-and-bust markets and they all have different profiles. But there some things we have learned. When sales volumes and prices both fall, over a period in excess of one year, in an environment where credit becomes tight, it takes at least an additional 2-4 years before volumes increase and price appreciation occurs.
The Puerto Vallarta real estate decline would actually have been much sharper than experienced except for the Canadians that have entered the market since the Canadian dollar has risen to parity with the US dollar. The problem is that the influence of the Canadians is likely to be short lived. There are simply not enough of them. The state of California has more people than all of Canada.
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